This year’s four-way Republican presidential primary has heated up, and its results could shape the nation’s future.
The winner of the May 8 primary could possibly face Democratic incumbent Barack Obama in the November general election, with the possibility of becoming the next president.
Observers across the country are debating as to whether or not former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has a clear shot to the Republican nomination, or if he will face an upset from his closest opponent, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.
However, one group that may seemingly have little to say about the primary is African-American voters. Since most surveys indicate that between 85 and 90 percent of Black voters identify themselves as Democrats, is it a waste of time for them or any other predominantly Democratic group to pay attention to the Republican primary?
“Not at all,” said Ramla Bandele, professor of political science at Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI). “Primary elections are important because you don’t always know who is going to win.”
Bandele encourages all voters to pay attention to a primary election and learn the positions and views of all candidates, even those outside of their own party.
“You have to be prepared to debate the issues that they bring
up and use that information when making decisions,” she said. “For example, if there are African-Americans who really want to be independent minded, then they have to pay attention to what the candidates of both parties are saying and see how their policies could affect them.”
Bandele said it is not only beneficial to know what the candidates believe, but also to be aware when they make controversial statements, like former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingirch telling a gathering of the NAACP that African-Americans “should demand paychecks and not be satisfied with food stamps,” or similar remarks by Santorum linking welfare dependency to African-Americans.
Bandele added that it is never safe to forgo studying all of the candidates because it is assumed that a particular one will win the primary. Another candidate may gain strength and make the race more competitive.
That scenario, she noted, occurred in 2000 when various candidates with strong credentials ran early in the Republican presidential primary, but George W. Bush ended up winning the nomination and becoming president.
The same scenario is already playing out this year with the rise of Santorum, who is giving an unexpectedly strong challenge to Romney, the perceived frontrunner.
On Tuesday, Romney defeated Santorum in the Arizona and Michigan primaries. The margin of victory was close in Michigan.
“We didn’t win by a lot, but we won by enough. And that’s all that counts,” Romney told supporters in Detroit.
With Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trailing them, Romney and Santorum seem to be in a fight for the Republican Party’s soul, with voters worried about the economy (generally speaking) supporting Romney, and those concerned mainly with social issues endorsing Santorum.
In the meantime, African-American voters seem to have had little say in Republican primary elections in some states, especially Iowa and New Hampshire, where they are less than 2 percent of the population.
However, in other primary states, such as Michigan and South Carolina, where the Black population is 14 percent and 27 percent, respectively, African-American voters have been able to play a slighter greater role.
Michigan and South Carolina are among states with open primaries, where voters of all types can participate. In other words, voters do not have to be a member of a particular political party to vote in that party’s primary, meaning that Democrats (or independents) can vote in a Republican primary, and vice versa.
Robbie Brown, a political analyst for the New York Times, noted that open primaries give Republican strategists an opportunity to court African-American voters, even if it is just on a temporary basis.
“In the struggle for every last vote, some Republican primary candidates have tried to appeal to a small number of Black voters in those open states, even if those same voters end up supporting President Obama in the fall,” Brown said.
Brown mentioned how, during the South Carolina primary, Romney and Gingrich campaigned among Black churches and organizations on Dr. Martin Luther King Day to gain support.
Open primaries also give Democrats, Black or otherwise, a peculiar opportunity to help decide who their candidate will end up running against.
Many experts believe that the winner of the Republican nomination will be decided next week by the political phenomenon known as Super Tuesday, a day in which several states hold presidential elections.
If that doesn’t happen however, the nominee will still need to be chosen by the time Indiana’s relatively late presidential primary occurs in May. That is what happened among Democrats in 2008, when Obama and Hilary Clinton campaigned against each other in Indiana to win support for the nomination.
Gingrich, Paul, Romney and Santorum are all on the Indiana primary ballot.
“It’s rare for Hoosiers to have the opportunity to inspect the candidates for the Republican nomination up close,” Pete Seat, the communications director for the Indiana Republican Party, said.
Indiana, which has a 9 percent African-American population, is an open primary state, and some Republicans did vote in the 2008 Democratic primary. This year, some staunch Democratic voters could end up choosing Republican primary candidates.
Ron Thomas, an African-American conservative activist and former advisor to Minnesota Rep. Michelle Bachman’s suspended presidential campaign, offered another reason why African-American voters should review the Republican presidential candidates: they may actually find something that they agree with.
“You have to have tensions on both sides of the aisle,” Thomas said. “We’re the only culture where we don’t make both political parties compete for our vote.”
Indiana Primary Coming
When Indiana holds its primary election on Tuesday, May 8, voters will have an opportunity to select candidates running for president, U.S. Congress, governor, state legislative seats and county offices.
President Barack Obama is unopposed in the Democratic presidential primary, while Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are competing for the Republican presidential nomination.
Perhaps the most competitive race on the ballot will be the Republican primary for U.S. Senate between six-term incumbent Richard Lugar and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock. The winner will face Democrat Joe Donnelly, who is unopposed in his primary.
Most races, however, seem to be decided. Both major party candidates for governor, Republican Mike Pence and Democrat John Gregg, are unopposed in their primary. All incumbent members of the state Legislature from the Indianapolis area are unopposed, as well as candidates for Marion County coroner, recorder, surveyor and treasurer.
Countywide, the most competitive primary race among both parties is the campaign for Judge of the Marion Superior Court. For more information on offices on the ballot this year and candidates, visit the Indiana Secretary of State Election Division’s website at www.in.gov/sos/elections/ or the Marion County Election Board’s website at www.indy.gov/election.
