“Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.”
That is the inviolable dictate of Western nations and of Israel. It is the justification for Israel (and, later, the U.S.) engaging in military strikes against Iran’s known nuclear facilities. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump have declared that the attacks have been wildly successful. It is not clear whether that assertion is true.
One cannot seriously evaluate this situation without considering recent history. In 2015, the Obama Administration painstakingly negotiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA, aka the “Iran Nuclear Deal”), which was designed to ensure that Iran used nuclear power solely for civilian purposes. Taking effect in 2016, the multi-nation agreement gave Iran relief from economic sanctions and returned billions of dollars that had been confiscated due to those sanctions.
The ultimate measure of JCPOA’s success would have been whether Iran would be able to build a nuclear bomb — which was highly unlikely given the amount of access that outside inspectors had to its nuclear facilities. Of course, we will never know the answer to this counter-factual given that Trump jettisoned the JCPOA in 2018, doing so in favor of what he deemed to be a “maximum pressure campaign.”
However, the inarguable fact is that, before the recent military actions, Iran was closer to being able to make a nuclear bomb than it was under the JCPOA. Thus, in supporting Israel’s attacks on Iran, Trump unwittingly admitted that “maximum pressure” had failed.
As always, the past is instructive in understanding the present. In this instance, the West’s neocolonial machinations in the 20th century inexorably led to where we are today. To begin, in 1953 the U.S. and Britain orchestrated a coup d’état in Iran, overthrowing its Prime Minister. They did so to control Iran’s oil production. (Incidentally, in one of history’s infinite ironies, President Eisenhower helped Iran start its nuclear program.)
Following the coup, the Shah of Iran seized power with backing from the U.S. and Britain. A brutal and repressive dictatorship ensued. However, the Shah was pro-Western, so the U.S. ignored his behavior.
The Iranian people did not. They overthrew the Shah in 1979, taking several hostages (including U.S. citizens) in the process. Iran became an anti-American über Islamist dictatorship under Ruhollah Khomeini; it remains so today. Thus began a common refrain in Iran: “Death to America.”
And here we are.
In addition to the West’s meddling in Iran’s affairs for decades, Israel’s domestic politics is the other key factor in the current crisis. Netanyahu is desperately clinging to power, which is likely keeping him out of jail. One way to ensure his stranglehold on the government is to engage in endless war. Thus, he is engaging in endless war. (And likely sabotaged peace talks between the U.S. and Iran in the process.)
Do I want Iran to have a nuclear weapon? Absolutely not. They are the most prolific state sponsor of terrorism in the world. In particular, Iran has helped to keep the Middle East a tinder box, which has afforded it growing influence in the region. Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon would be a disaster.
Of course, it is not at all clear that this current war, or any future military action, can prevent Iran from creating a nuclear bomb. There are reports that the regime moved its enriched uranium away from their nuclear sites. In the end, it is irrelevant whether it would take Iran one week, one month, or one year to build a bomb. The fact is that this technology has been unleashed on the world. A determined nation — any nation — can obtain it with patience and determination.
So, what do we now? The answer is simple: Go back to some form of the JCPOA. Offer not only to remove all sanctions but promise to invest heavily in Iran’s economy (i.e., the carrot). The Iranian people have suffered greatly for several years. At the same time, the West threaten even tougher sanctions (i.e., the stick), if Iran refused to negotiate.
Before Israel’s attacks, a growing number of Iranians opposed their repressive government. In the wake of the attacks, that opposition appears to be waning. Crises have a tendency to bring people together, and desperate people eventually do desperate things. Fortunately, the crisis is reversible. At least for now.
What if we don’t offer another agreement? Iran could withdraw from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which bans non-nuclear nations from acquiring nuclear weapons. That agency also forces those nations to give inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency unfettered access to any suspected nuclear sites. We don’t need “boots on the ground.” We need penny loafers.
And then there is talk about “regime change” in Iran. That strategy generally hasn’t worked well for the U.S. during the previous 100 years or so. This includes our elective war in Iraq, which is still figuring out how to recover from our decapitation of its leadership.
In the end, Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. But neither should any nation. The danger is too great. Further, it is important to remember that only one nation has ever used nuclear weapons in war.
The people of that nation should understand why much of the world is skeptical of its moral authority.
Larry Smith is a community leader. Contact him at larry@leaf-llc.com.
