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BEIJING (AP) — This year, a rocket will carry a boxcar-sized
module into orbit, the first building block for a Chinese space
station. Around 2013, China plans to launch a lunar probe that will
set a rover loose on the moon. It wants to put a man on the moon,
sometime after 2020.
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While the United States is still working out its next move after
the space shuttle program, China is forging ahead. Some experts
worry the U.S. could slip behind China in human spaceflight – the
realm of space science with the most prestige.
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“Space leadership is highly symbolic of national capabilities and
international influence, and a decline in space leadership will be
seen as symbolic of a relative decline in U.S. power and
influence,” said Scott Pace, an associate NASA administrator in the
George W. Bush administration. He was a supporter of Bush’s plan –
shelved by President Barack Obama – to return Americans to the
moon.
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China is still far behind the U.S. in space technology and
experience, but what it doesn’t lack is a plan or financial
resources. While U.S. programs can fall victim to budgetary worries
or a change of government, rapidly growing China appears to have no
such constraints.
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“One of the biggest advantages of their system is that they have
five-year plans so they can develop well ahead,” said Peter Bond,
consultant editor for Jane’s Space Systems and Industry. “They are
taking a step-by-step approach, taking their time and gradually
improving their capabilities. They are putting all the pieces
together for a very capable, advanced space industry.”
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In 2003, China became the third country to send an astronaut into
space on its own, four decades after the United States and Russia.
In 2006, it sent its first probe to the moon. In 2008, China
carried out its first spacewalk.
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China’s space station is slated to open around 2020, the same year
the International Space Station is scheduled to close. If the U.S.
and its partners don’t come up with a replacement, China could have
the only permanent human presence in the sky.
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Its space laboratory module, due to be launched later this year,
will test docking techniques for the space station. China’s version
will be smaller than the International Space Station, which is the
size of a football field and jointly operated by the U.S., Russia,
Canada, Japan and 11 European countries.
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“China has lagged 20 to 40 years behind the U.S. in developing
space programs and China has no intention of challenging U.S.
dominance in space,” said He Qisong, a professor at Shanghai
University of Political Science and Law. “But it is a sign of the
national spirit for China to develop a space program and therefore
it is of great significance for China.”
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Some elements of China’s program, notably the firing of a
ground-based missile into one of its dead satellites four years
ago, have alarmed American officials and others who say such moves
could set off a race to militarize space. That the program is run
by the military has made the U.S. reluctant to cooperate with China
in space, even though the latter insists its program is purely for
peaceful ends.
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“Space technology can be applied for both civilian and military
use, but China doesn’t stress the military purpose,” said Li
Longchen, retired editor-in-chief of Chinese magazine “Space
Probe.” “It has been always hard for humankind to march into space
and China must learn the lessons from the U.S.”
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China is not the only country aiming high in space. Russia has
talked about building a base on the moon and a possible mission to
Mars but hasn’t set a time frame. India has achieved an unmanned
orbit of the moon and plans its first manned space flight in
2016.
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The U.S. has no plans to return to the moon. “We’ve been there
before,” Obama said last year. “There’s a lot more of space to
explore.” He prefers sending astronauts to land on an asteroid by
2025 and ultimately to Mars. But those plans are far from
set.
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Instead, NASA is closing out its 30-year space shuttle era this
month, leaving the U.S. dependent on hitching rides to the space
station aboard Russian Soyuz capsules at a cost of $56 million per
passenger, rising to $63 million from 2014. The U.S. also hopes
private companies will develop spacecraft to ferry cargo and crew
to the space station.
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China, having orbited the moon and starting collecting data on it,
is moving toward sending a man there – and beyond. It hopes to
launch the rover-releasing moon probe in about two years. Chinese
experts believe a moon landing will happen in 2025 at the
earliest.
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“The lunar probe is the starting point for deep space exploration,”
said Wu Weiren, chief designer of China’s moon-exploring program,
in a 2010 interview posted on the national space agency’s website.
“We first need to do a good job of exploring the moon and work out
the rocket, transportation and detection technology that can then
be used for a future exploration of Mars or Venus.”
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In testimony in May to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review
Commission, which reports to the U.S. Congress, former NASA
official Pace said what China learns in its space program can be
applied elsewhere: improving the accuracy of ballistic missiles and
quality controls for industry.
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China also offers space technology to developing countries to
secure access to raw materials, said Pace, now director of the
Space Policy Institute at George Washington University.
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There may also be economic reasons to explore the moon: It contains
minerals and helium-3, a potential rich source of energy through
nuclear fusion.
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“But that’s way ahead,” said Bond, the Jane’s editor. “A lot of it
would be prestige, the fact that every time we went out and looked
at the moon in the night sky we would say the Chinese flag is on
there.”
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—
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Associated Press researcher Yu Bing contributed to this
report.
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