Some blunt words.
Neither Mayor Bart Peterson, Monroe Gray nor City-County Council Democrats raised your, mine or anyone else’s property taxes by double or triple digits or thousands of dollars.
Fact – City property taxes rose 1.373 percent and county property taxes rose 4.122 percent between 2006 and 2007.
My property taxes and other homeowners in Indianapolis jumped beyond reason NOT because of the actions of the mayor and council, but because our property was assessed below its real market value. Indiana’s new property assessment system, not city-county politicians was responsible for the high tax jumps.
Yet, many voters, including some African-Americans, want to throw out Peterson and Democrats over something they didn’t do.
High crime led the mayor and council Democrats to do what Republicans refused to — finally spend the dollars for a crime fighting and justice system that will work. And it’s starting to work with homicides down 24 percent and other crimes starting to slowly ebb.
Yet, some city/county voters, including African-Americans, want to throw out Peterson and Democrats, because they did their jobs.
I’ve repeatedly asked what Republicans would do if they again controlled city/county government. All I heard the first half of the year was a call for more cops. Then after the property assessment (not tax) crisis, they cried more police and cut spending, though Republicans never said what.
Greg Ballard says he’d cut $70 million out of the city/county budget. That’s not consulting fees he’d cut, but services thousands depend on. That’s not rhetoric, but cold truth!
But there’s more. A Mayor Ballard would cave in to George W. Bush’s inJustice Department and end affirmative action in police (and fire) department hiring.
One reason the mayor’s Black support is soft is a feeling that he and Democrats haven’t done enough to improve conditions and employment in our neighborhoods. A fair criticism. But, does our community honestly expect a Ballard mayoralty to care more about improving our communities?
In recent days, the Ballard campaign has played fast and loose with the truth. Claiming the city does just 1 percent business with minority business (false). That Democrats OKd 19 tax increases (really false).
And Ballard’s compassionless remark about the homeless during the Fox 59/WIBC debate causes one to wonder if he’ll be the compassionate mayor Indianapolis is used to, or be a vessel for the forces of hate and bigotry fueling his insurgent campaign.
You may feel it doesn’t matter, but it does. Bart not Ballard is the only rational choice for Black voters Tuesday. And if we don’t vote, we deserve the negative whirlwind our community will reap!
More blunt words on a subject I know much about — statistical and demographic research.
Around 2:30 p.m. Thursday, Oct. 25, the Indianapolis Star’s Web site said they’d release a poll at 4 p.m. in the mayor’s race. I called sources in Mayor Bart Peterson’s campaign who told me the poll showed Peterson ahead of Republican Greg Ballard.
But disturbingly, the Star told the Peterson campaign only 15 percent of the poll’s respondents were African-Americans; in a city/county where 24.4 percent of the voting age population is African-American (2006 Census estimates).
With the Star’s poll seemingly undercounting African-Americans by more than a third, I e-mailed the top editor of the Star and the news director of their newsgathering partner WTHR/Channel 13 at 3:15 p.m. for confirmation that their poll seriously undersampled Blacks.
In a blizzard of e-mails over the next 45 minutes, Star Editor Dennis Ryerson said, “Our poll is of likely voters. With (them) we need to take into account recent voting participation.”
I responded, “The only data on recent voting participation by race is the November 2004 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration Supplement.”
I sent that Census Bureau report to Ryerson, showing that in 2004 57.3 percent of Indiana’s voting age population voted; and 53.8 percent of Indiana’s Black voting age population voted. Of Indiana’s registered voters, 85.7 percent voted in 2004; while 86.5 percent of Black registered voters did.
At 4 p.m., the Star and WTHR published their poll on line: Peterson 41 percent/Ballard 39 percent.
But the e-mails had an effect as Star and WTHR officials realized their pollster, Selzer and Co., had blown it.
Selzer used November 2000 voting data to say only 16.5 percent of city/county voters would be Black. But, unfortunately that 2000 data was based on 1990 Census data and updates.
My diligence uncovered that Selzer, an Iowa-based polling firm, had prepared a major poll, 14 days before an election, utilizing 17-year-old data.
Faced with the facts I revealed, Selzer recalculated the numbers, assuming 20.5 percent of all voters would be Black, and reissued a “corrected” poll around 5:35 p.m., showing Peterson ahead of Ballard 43 percent/39 percent.
Selzer and Co., and CEO Dr. Ann Selzer refused to acknowledge their statistical stupidity in using 1990-based Census data in 2007.
In an e-mail responding to my request to comment, Selzer was insulted that anyone, especially the Black press, not to mention a bespectacled, graying Black man, with nearly 30 year’s experience in demographic research, would have the temerity to question her research.
“You believe these estimates underrepresent the African-American community, as you have with every poll the Indianapolis Star has conducted with my firm. There is no benefit to deliberately underrepresent the African-American community,” she contended.
Since 2004 when the Star began using Selzer’s firm, only once did her polls adequately sample African-Americans. That was the poll last August conducted jointly by the Star and the Indianapolis Recorder Newspaper, where extra dollars were spent to insure an adequate number of Blacks were surveyed.
In the only other publicly released polls in the mayor’s race, conducted by Research 2000 and Public Opinion Strategies both respected polling firms, the sample in each was 23 percent Black. Selzer’s was 15 percent.
Selzer is famous for her Iowa presidential caucus polling. But Iowa isn’t Indiana. Indianapolis isn’t Des Moines. Selzer has demonstrated repeatedly that she can’t adequately survey in racially diverse districts and areas of Indiana.
The Star and owner Gannett have the cash to hire the best pollster with a demonstrated track record of inclusiveness and statistical competence. This should be their last election poll Selzer & Co. does for the Star and WTHR.
See ‘ya at the polls — make sure you vote Tuesday.
Amos Brown’s opinions are not necessarily those of The Indianapolis Recorder. You can contact him at (317) 221-0915 or e-mail him at ACBROWN@AOL.COM.
