Following Mitt Romney’s failed 2012 presidential bid (which came after several pundits and pollsters had predicted his victory), the Republican National Committee commissioned the “Growth and Opportunity Project.” Colloquially referred to as “the autopsy,” this report purported to analyze the reasons for the party’s second consecutive loss to President Obama.
The autopsy concluded that the GOP needed to be much more effective at attracting a diverse set of voters: African-Americans, LGBTQ community members, women, Asians, and Latinos. America’s changing demographics, they believed, dictated that Republicans needed to moderate their policies and (equally as important) their communication. The Democratic Party had a clear advantage — the Electoral College notwithstanding — because those voters believed it to be much more welcoming to a broad spectrum of Americans.
The problem was that the carefully prepared autopsy was wrong. Dead wrong. As we all know, Donald Trump won the ensuing election doing precisely the opposite of what the report had suggested. He constantly berated Latinos. He unashamedly mocked a disabled reporter. He referred to “sh*thole” countries — all of which were primarily comprised of people of color. He advocated banning all Muslims from entering the U.S.
Finally, shortly before the election, news reports revealed that Trump had made an unbelievably misogynistic comment a decade or so before. For these reasons (and many others), several prominent Republicans, including the then head of the RNC, urged Trump to step aside as the GOP’s nominee. He declined. Still, many people — including me — wondered whether Trump actually wanted to win. Of course, he did just that (albeit losing the popular vote). Then he won again last year, with his party securing control over the House and the Senate.
The conventional wisdom among Democrats is that Trump has won despite who he is, even though it’s clear that he won because of who he is. One factor is his braggadocios persona; Democrats can’t seem to process that millions of Americans prefer their leaders to be “strong but wrong” as opposed to “weak but right.” Second, Trump has a “present bias.” That is, he is fiercely focused on what he wants to do right now. To borrow from Jay-Z, when he comes to a fork in the road he goes straight.
Third, Trump (like George W. Bush) understands that communication is much broader than the ability to speak well. Democrats would win nearly all debates … in an academic forum. But there aren’t enough Americans who are interested in academic arguments. They want people to talk to them rather than at them. There has long been an anti-intellectual strain in America; that strain has taken control of our politics.
Finally, millions of voters view Trump’s vulgarity, flirtations with white nationalism, vindictiveness, and myriad other flaws as a feature rather than a bug. It’s not merely that they want a president with whom they would be comfortable having a beer; they want a president who (they erroneously believe) will shatter that beer bottle over someone’s head in a bar fight.
In short, it’s more important to “stick it” to their perceived enemies than it is to vote in their own best interests. Democrats continue, understandably, to be baffled by this phenomenon.
In the end, the Republican Party is laser-focused on being the home of white grievance, anti-intellectualism, conspiracy theories, and carnival barking. Yet, for the first time in three presidential bids, Donald Trump won the popular vote last year (if only by roughly 1%). This was largely because he increased his support among young male voters, African Americans, and Latinos. When combined with the information echo chamber among his base (e.g., FOX News, talk radio, podcasts, and “alternative” sources), Republicans have a winning formula.
Are there fissures in their coalition? Absolutely. (See Marjorie Taylore Greene and Tucker Carlson regarding the war between Israel and Iran). Yet, Democrats would be foolish to think that most Trump supporters would pull the lever in 2028 for Gavin Newsom (as an example).
The operative question is whether Democrats should mirror Republicans in their approach to electoral politics. The blue team is spending a lot of time reflecting (aka navel gazing), trying to ascertain how to win back the confidence of a solid majority of Americans. With the midterms fewer than 18 months away, they’re in quite a quandary. Should they ignore the advice of their polling experts? Notably, the RNC didn’t do that in 2016; they merely were “lucky” enough to have their party hijacked by someone whose EQ is far higher than his IQ.
It might simply come down to whether both the Republicans and the Democrats have the “right” strategies for the “wrong” candidates — or vice versa. Obama and Trump, much like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton, possess an innate ability to communicate with people in a way that makes them feel seen and heard. Hillary Clinton, George H.W. Bush, Mitt Romney, and Al Gore all lack this fundamental skill.
For the foreseeable future, it seems that form is going to trump substance.
