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Business optimism is returning for small and midsize business leaders at the start of 2026, fueling confidence and growth plans.
The 2026 Business Leaders Outlook survey, released in January by JPMorganChase reveals a turnaround from last June, when economic headwinds and uncertainty about shifting policies and tariffs caused some leaders to put their business plans on hold.
Midsize companies, who often find themselves more exposed to geopolitical shifts and policy changes, experienced a significant dip in business and economic confidence in June of 2025. As they have become more comfortable with the complexities of today’s environment, we are seeing optimism rebounding in the middle market nationwide – an encouraging sign for growth, hiring, and innovation. Small businesses, meanwhile, maintained steady optimism throughout 2025, but they aren’t shielded from domestic concerns. Many cited inflation and wage pressures as the top challenges for 2026 and are taking steps to ensure their businesses are prepared for what’s ahead.
“Indiana’s business leaders consistently demonstrate remarkable resilience and creativity, thriving amid evolving challenges and uncertainty. Their proactive approach to innovation and growth underscores the strength and vibrancy of our business community, said Christina Moungey, Region Manager for Indiana and Kentucky, J.P. Morgan Commercial Banking. “I am confident that their vision and determination will continue to drive Indiana’s success in the year ahead.”
Overall, both small and midsize business leaders are feeling more confident to pursue growth opportunities, embrace emerging technologies and, in some cases, forge new strategic partnerships. That bodes well for entrepreneurs in Indiana. Here are a few other key findings from the Business Leaders Outlook about trends expected to drive activity in Indiana this year:
1) Indiana midsize business leaders are more optimistic (41%) about the national economy than the rest of the country (39%) at large. Forty-one percent of Midwest midsize business leaders are optimistic about the local economy.
2) For all middle market leaders surveyed, uncertainty remains an issue. Almost half (49%) of all midsize business leaders surveyed cited “economic uncertainty” as their top concern – even with an improved outlook from a few months ago. Revenue and sales growth was second at 33%, while tariffs and labor both were third at 31%.
3) And tariffs are impacting businesses costs. Eighty-one percent of midsize Ohio business leaders said tariffs have had a negative impact – either moderately or significantly – on the cost of doing business, compared to 61% nationally.
4) Anticipating revenue and sales growth. A little over half (59%) of Indiana middle market companies are optimistic about their company’s prospects for 2026, compared to 71% nationally. Still, 75% of Indiana leaders anticipate revenue/sales growth next year, and 66% expect an increase in profit.
5) Big plans are on the horizon. Thirty-eight percent of Indiana midsize business leaders say they plan to expand into new domestic markets in 2026, which is slightly more than leaders nationally (32%). Additionally, 56% of Indiana midsize business leaders plan to use AI for HR processes in 2026, compared to 29% nationally.
The bottom line
Rebounding optimism among U.S. business leaders at the start of the year is setting the stage for an active 2026. With business leaders looking to implement ambitious growth plans that position themselves for the future, momentum in Indiana could be beneficial future goals for leaders looking to launch, grow or scale their business this year.
For informational/educational purposes only: Views and strategies described in this article or provided via links may not be appropriate for everyone and are not intended as specific advice/recommendation for any business. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries do not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The material is not intended to provide legal, tax, or financial advice or to indicate the availability or suitability of any JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. product or service. You should carefully consider your needs and objectives before making any decisions and consult the appropriate professional(s). Outlooks and past performance are not guarantees of future results. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates are not responsible for, and do not provide or endorse third party products, services, or other content.
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