Where many NFL fans see hideous matchups, fantasy football players see opportunity.
Consider the worst of this week’s schedule, the disastrous clash between the Rams and Jaguars. Or the slightly less heinous showdown between the Panthers and Buccaneers. While these games will prompt many viewers to reach for the remote, fantasy geeks will be drawn to the potential points offered up by the Rams (allowing 29 points a game), Bucs (28 points a game), Jags (30th-ranked pass defense) or Panthers (No. 30 run defense).
But before you get too carried away with those Donnie Avery and Torry Holt starts, remember this universal truth: Bad teams are bad because they do bad things.
Take last week’s Browns-Bills game. The awful defenses lured some unfortunate souls to gamble and start Trent Edwards or Derek Anderson. Yet in the end there were no touchdowns and more field goals (3) than completions by Anderson (2). There was similar ugliness in earlier ineptitude contests, such as Washington’s 9-7 win over the Rams and Oakland’s 13-10 win over the Chiefs.
As you again wonder how Anderson can average one completion every 30 minutes, here are some players to start and some to avoid in Week 6:
QUARTERBACKS
TAKE A SHOT:
_Overthinker Alert: The defensive stats point to tough days for New Orleans’ Drew Brees and the Giants’ Eli Manning, but it’s hard to imagine either explosive offense being shut down in this battle of the unbeatens.
_Good news for fantasy owners of Matt Schaub. The Texans appear to have scrapped all that run-game and defense talk and are back to just throwing every time. He should be OK even against the surprisingly stingy Bengals.
_Seattle is scary at home when Matt Hasselbeck plays, and he had four TDs there against the Cardinals two years ago. (Plus, play him while you can because that next injury’s always lurking.)
_Sure he only throws the ball 6 or 7 yards, but all those tiny passes added up to a 300-yard game for Denver’s Kyle Orton last week. The Monday night game against the Chargers should be a shootout.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT:
Please, in the name of Derek Anderson’s 15.1 passer rating, don’t start these guys:
_Baltimore’s defense is way off its usual ferocious pace, but that sloppy run-stopping last week has to be attractive to a team with Adrian Peterson. And throwing anywhere near Ed Reed is still unattractive, so bench the Vikings’ Brett Favre.
_Also in that game, Joe Flacco’s coming off his worst week of the season and faces the NFL’s leading sack team, so keep him on the bench if you have a better option.
_And, just to re-emphasize, do not start Carolina’s Jake Delhomme against the Bucs’ defense that allows more big passing plays than any other team. They also can’t stop the run, and Carolina likes Delhomme better when he hands off all the time.
RUNNING BACKS
ALL DAY LONG:
_If you haven’t been paying attention to Baltimore’s backfield by committee, it appears to have been busted up. Ray Rice has 37 touches the past two weeks to eight for Willis McGahee. And the Vikings have been a little softer against the run than usual.
_So what if Willie Parker’s coming back; keep starting Rashard Mendenhall. Parker hasn’t been very effective and may not be fully healthy. Even if he is, there should be enough carries to go around against Cleveland’s NFL-worst run defense.
_The Jets’ Thomas Jones is old and creaky, but he’s sure been hitting the end zone lately. He faces a Bills defense that let the almost-as-old-and-creaky Jamal Lewis run all over them.
_In other old-guy news, New England’s Sammy Morris will get plenty of carries after Tom Brady grows tired of throwing against the Titans.
RED FLAGS:
_Are the Titans so bad that it’s even time to bench first-round pick Chris Johnson? Seems like this is a good week for that, considering the Patriots will build such a big lead that Tennessee is forced to pass — and maybe even bring in Vince Young for a few incompletions.
_In another example of bad things happening to good backs, keep Marshawn Lynch on the bench. The Jets are eager to show last week’s defensive breakdown was a fluke, and Buffalo’s broken offense is no fluke.
_It’s time to make like Jerry Jones and unload Julius Jones. He had a couple of nice games early on, but when his team scored 41 points in a romp all he could scrape together was 34 yards.
WIDE RECEIVERS
THROW HIM THE DARN BALL:
_Just admit it: You benched Atlanta’s Roddy White for his 210-yard, 2-TD game. Not a terrible decision considering his meager output up to then. But there’s a rule that you can never again bench a guy who had 200 yards.
_New England’s Wes Welker appears to be healthy again, and he’s facing a Tennessee defensive backfield in which everybody’s either a rookie or wearing a cast.
_The Jets were in such a hurry to get Braylon Edwards involved in the offense that he forgot to drop a bunch of passes. Even if he mixes in more drops, he should fare well against the Bills.
_The big game for Philadelphia rookie Jeremy Maclin might seem like a fluke, but he plays the Raiders, who no longer seem to mind so much when the other team scores.
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH:
_It’s time to make like the Eagles a few years back and suspend Terrell Owens indefinitely. The Buffalo offense has proven itself incapable of the forward pass. And, if you start him, you might actually be tempted to watch part of a Bills game.
_Whatever happened to Greg Jennings? He has five catches and no touchdowns in Green Bay’s last three games. Keep him on the bench till he shows signs of life.
_Here’s a public service announcement for the more inattentive fantasy players: Guys named Austin are off this week, so don’t start free agent sensations Miles Austin or Austin Collie.
BYES THIS WEEK: Dallas, Indianapolis, Miami, San Francisco.
FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST: WR Austin Collie (97 yards, 2 TDs), WR Jeremy Maclin (142 yards, 2 TDs), RB Sammy Morris (107 total yards), WR Miles Austin (250 yards, 2 TDs), QB Chad Henne (2 TDs), WR Donnie Avery (87 yards, TD).
WHAT DO I KNOW?
Big Hits: I predicted good things for T.J. Houshmandzadeh (2 TDs), Tony Romo (351 yards, 2 TDs), Eli Manning (2 TDs, perfect QB rating in brief work), obscure Colts receivers (Austin Collie had 2 TDs), Tom Brady (2 TDs) and a rare end zone visit from Clinton Portis (2 TDs). I also expected bad things for Shaun Hill (0 TDs).
Big Misses: I committed the fireable offense of suggesting possible bye-week fill-ins from Trent Edwards (0 TDs) and Derek Anderson (2 completions). I expected success from DeSean Jackson (15 yards). I also expected Cedric Benson (120 yards, TD) to flop, Derrick Mason to actually catch a ball and Matt Ryan (329 yards, 3 TDs) to struggle.
© 2009 Associated Press. Displayed by permission. All rights reserved.
