It’s about the time of year when the Colts start resting up for a playoff run, a development that annually spells trouble for fantasy teams banking on Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai.
Fortunately for those Colts owners deep in the fake playoffs, there’s probably at least one more game of regular-season effort left in Indianapolis.
Coach Jim Caldwell isn’t saying exactly how the unbeaten Colts will handle the starters these last two games since they’ve already locked up homefield advantage throughout the playoffs, but history — and the chance to make history — indicate the offense will be humming along like normal.
Just look at the past five years. For all their late-season resting, the Colts have only stopped trying in Week 16 one time. And that game, in 2005, came after they had just lost the chance to go unbeaten and so had nothing on the line. If they would play hard for an undefeated record then, why wouldn’t they now?
So unless Caldwell gives some indication that he wants to sit starters Sunday against the Jets, plan on rolling with your Colts as usual.
As you again wonder why you didn’t draft Manning, here are some players to consider starting and some to sit in Week 16:
QUARTERBACKS
TAKE A SHOT:
_Weather permitting, Jacksonville’s No. 27 pass defense should be just what New England’s Tom Brady needs to bounce back from a disastrous week. (Of course, if you have Brady, you’re probably out of the playoffs since he compiled fewer fantasy points than Keith Null, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Moore and Josh Freeman.)
_Brett Favre should at least be decent after going TD-less last week, as the slumping Vikings have a golden opportunity to get back on track against the Bears on Monday night. They should be more run-first against the feeble Chicago defense, so lots of Vikings should be open.
_Don’t overthink your playoff QB and decide to bench Philadelphia’s Donovan McNabb. Lots of Chiefs and Raiders contributed to Denver’s No. 2 pass ranking, and the Eagles have too many weapons to be slowed.
_How many people in the preseason would have imagined San Francisco’s Alex Smith as a desirable QB come playoff time? He closes the season against Detroit and St. Louis on a team motivated to win out for a .500 record.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT:
Please, in the name of Jim Sorgi, don’t start these guys:
_Don’t get too excited about Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer after his rather unusual 300-yard game. It’ll be all handoffs all the time against the nonexistent Chiefs defense.
_In that same game, no matter how desperate you are, remember Matt Cassel’s big numbers last week only came against Cleveland.
_Jacksonville’s David Garrard has been wildly inconsistent, so it seems a safe bet he’ll follow up last week’s three-TD game with a massive dud against the Patriots.
RUNNING BACKS:
ALL DAY LONG:
_How many millions of fantasy points were left on the bench around the country when Cleveland’s Jerome Harrison nearly went for 300 yards? Now he gets the Raiders, who are statistically about as bad as the Chiefs against the run and have allowed a league-high 20 TD runs.
_The good news for owners of Rashard Mendenhall is that it appears he can pile up stats in Pittsburgh’s pass-all-the-time offense. He could even have another six catches in a Baltimore-Pittsburgh game that is shaping up like a shootout.
_The Bills have the worst run defense in the league, so if you can figure out who’s getting the carries for Atlanta, give him a shot. In that same game, Fred Jackson should rack up big stats on the Falcons.
_How much would Cincinnati’s Larry Johnson love a big game against the Kansas City team that unceremoniously dumped him this year?
RED FLAGS:
_I don’t care if the Saints want to get back to a balanced offense and Pierre Thomas is supposed to get more carries. (Isn’t he always?) The guy just can’t get a TD these days, and he’s too much of a risk in the playoffs, even against the lowly Bucs.
_The Panthers’ run defense isn’t the pushover it was earlier in the season, allowing just one score the past three weeks and keeping Adrian Peterson under 40 yards. The Giants’ Brandon Jacobs, meanwhile, remains the only 264-yard tailback ever to get pulled near the goal line.
_The Vikings’ run defense is really slipping, but not enough to allow Chicago’s Matt Forte to do anything.
WIDE RECEIVERS
THROW HIM THE DARN BALL:
_Start all your Packers receivers and tight ends as Green Bay throws all over the Seahawks’ 29th-ranked pass defense that just got shredded by Josh Freeman.
_Baltimore’s Derrick Mason has become quite the reliable 35-year-old. He has three TDs in his past four games and should get a lot of passes thrown his way against the non-covering Pittsburgh pass defense.
_Strangely, it might be a good time to start Terrell Owens. Sure, the Bills can’t protect the quarterback and aren’t even really sure who their quarterback is this week, but the Falcons’ 30th-ranked pass defense has big problems.
_San Francisco’s Michael Crabtree hasn’t done much lately, but such trends often end against Detroit.
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH:
_The problem with Eli Manning’s awesomeness of late is that he’s spreading the ball around a lot. That’s great for real football, but sure hurts the fantasy value of Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks.
_You’d think with Matt Ryan back for the Falcons and the rotten Bills in town it’d be a good week to start Roddy White, but the way to beat Buffalo is just to hand off every time.
_It’s extremely safe to assume Braylon Edwards won’t put together two good games in a row. The Jets’ best chance to stay with the Colts is to keep it on the ground and try to eat up the clock.
FREE AGENT SHOPPING LIST: RB Jerome Harrison (286 yards, 3 TDs), RB Michael Bush (133 yards, TD), QB Matt Moore (3 TDs).
WHAT DO I KNOW?
Big Hits: I expected good things from Aaron Rodgers (383 yards, 4 TDs), Eli Manning (3 TDs), Chris Wells (110 yards, TD), Tony Romo (312 yards, TD) and DeSean Jackson (140 yards, TD). I expected failure from Brett Favre (0 TDs, INT, argument with coach) and Roddy White (33 yards).
Big Misses: I did not expect Tom Brady to turn into JaMarcus Russell. I figured a Cleveland RB would tear up the Chiefs, but I thought it would be Chris Jennings, not Jerome Harrison. I was certain Robert Meachem (43 yards) and other Saints would pile up stats while blowing out Dallas. I didn’t expect much from Maurice Morris (126 yards, TD) or Carson Palmer (314 yards, 2 TDs).
© 2009 Associated Press. Displayed by permission. All rights reserved.
