Eight weeks until Indianapolis/Marion County voters choose the 49th mayor of Indianapolis on Nov. 3, and it’s Joe Hogsett’s race to lose. By all accounts — internal polls of both parties, fundraising and voters’ perceptions — Hogsett is leading.
But!
It’s been my experience these many years in Indianapolis that when Black voters are enthusiastic, Democratic candidates do well; but when Blacks aren’t enthusiastic, Democrats don’t do as well. And could that be happening this November?
On a hunch that something wasn’t feeling right about this year’s mayor campaign, I did a snap “unscientific” poll on our WTLC-AM (1310) “Afternoons with Amos” program. I simply asked, “If the election were held now, who would you vote for mayor?”
The shocker was that 43.5 percent of those polled said they were undecided. Yes, Hogsett was chosen by 52.2 percent, while 4.3 percent chose the Republican candidate, Marine reservist and businessman Chuck Brewer.
But it was the large percentage of undecided that concerned me.
Despite Hogsett’s summer TV ad blitz costing hundreds of thousands of dollars, listeners said they were undecided, because they weren’t sure where Hogsett stood on the issues they cared about, whether he really cared about their neighborhoods, not the downtown power brokers.
Hogsett’s TV ads have reinforced, some feel too much, that he’ll be strong fighting crime and protecting public safety. He’s talked about jobs for youth, but nothing about jobs for their parents or other adults. He’s talked up streetlights for neighborhoods, but nothing about how to revitalize those neighborhoods.
Hogsett’s campaign dismissed the poll. But again, eight weeks before the election, my gut tells me Black enthusiasm for Hogsett is a mile wide and inches deep.
It should, especially in the tight race for control for the City-County Council.
Blacks might be receptive to hearing from a new generation of Black Republican council candidates. But the Marion County Republicans aren’t providing that alternative.
Of their 25 council candidates, Republicans have just three African-Americans running. Of the eight Black Democratic incumbents running for re-election, Republicans are running six white candidates against them. The number of Black Republican council candidates may be the lowest number in the UniGov era.
If Black enthusiasm for Hogsett is soft, is that an opportunity for Republican mayor candidate Brewer?
Compared to Mayor Greg Ballard at this stage of the campaign eight years ago, Brewer has been more visible. He’s reached out to Black media to some degree, having done four interviews on our show (Hogsett’s done eight). Brewer’s been out at some Black community events and in Black churches. But surprisingly for this stage in the campaign, there are not yet visible Black supporters for Brewer.
Brewer has to first overcome that most people in the city/county don’t know him. And there are questions about whether Brewer will have the resources to get his name and message out to the mass of the community, including our African-American community.
Brewer also has to overcome strong antipathy toward the current mayor among Blacks. Again from our poll, 80 percent said they disapproved of the job Ballard is doing; 87 percent said Indianapolis was moving in the “wrong” direction.
Again, the race is Hogsett’s to lose. Increasing enthusiasm by Black voters for his candidacy will mean the difference between the expected landslide election night and a very close contest.
What I’m Hearing in the Streets
The controversial BlueIndy electric car sharing service, already viewed with jaundiced eyes by our African-American community, shot itself in the foot as it displayed an extreme lack of sensitivity to Indianapolis’ multi-racial nature during its recent launch.
At the ribbon cutting ceremony, I saw only one African-American wearing a BlueIndy employee’s shirt. When it came time for the ribbon cutting photo op with Mayor Ballard and officials of BlueIndy’s French conglomerate parent Bollore and their Indy partners, there was no person of color; no minority was included in the photo.
It got worse. In a live interview on our “Afternoons with Amos” program, when asked directly how many of the company’s 57 employees were African-American, BlueIndy President Herve Muller could only shrug and say, “I don’t know.”
Meanwhile in another controversy, whether BlueIndy cars meet American safety standards, the Indiana BMV confirmed that the cars, whose manufacturer, make and model are all called “Blue Car,” presented the BMV certifications that they meet American standards.
The BMV also confirmed that the cars were plated and titled here in Marion County, and should’ve paid excise taxes of $350 each, based upon their classification as vehicles valued between $25,000 and $29,999.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which regulates whether vehicles are safe for our highways, said manufacturers “self-identify” whether their cars meet NHTSA standards. However, NHTSA said if those cars don’t meet any of the several safety standards, they can be recalled and the maker fined thousands to millions of dollars.
One-fourth of city/county residents of voting age are African-American. In any given election the past several years, between 20 and 25 percent of Indianapolis/Marion County voters have been African-American. So, why did the Indianapolis Chamber and the Board of Realtors commission a poll of likely Indy voters that didn’t ask the race/ethnicity of voters?
Was their South Carolina-based pollster clueless enough to ignore the basic rule of polling and research, that a question about race/ethnicity is always asked and documented in this type of polling research?
The Chamber’s poll of likely voters is worthless, only because there’s no evidence that it adequately sampled, weighted and balanced the poll to reflect the sizeable percentage of Black voters here. Their worthless poll is another example of Indy Chamber’s moving away from their commitment to equality and diversity.
See ya next week!
You can email comments to acbrown@aol.com.
