WASHINGTON-U.S. intelligence agencies are watching for signs that a desperate Col. Moammar Gadhafi, under attack from a coalition air assault, could resort to acts of terrorism against Western targets.
Col. Gadhafi has extensive stockpiles of mustard gas and high explosives at his disposal that could be used in attacks against targets in Europe or against his own people. He also has a documented history of orchestrating strikes against civilians and other world leaders.
“U.S. officials are keeping an eye on that possibility,” one U.S. official said.
So far, counterterrorism officials in the U.S. and Europe believe there is a low probability of Col. Gadhafi returning to terrorism in the near term because he is focused for now on maintaining his hold on power during Western air strikes.
“We haven’t seen any intelligence yet” that he is actively reestablishing his terrorism ties or plotting attacks outside Libya, a senior U.S. counterterrorism official said. Another U.S. official called the likelihood “low,” but added: “That being said, a madman’s a madman.”
John Brennan, Mr. Obama’s top White House counterterrorism adviser, has first-hand knowledge of Col. Gadhafi’s past ties to terrorism. One of Mr. Brennan’s colleagues at the CIA died aboard Pan Am Flight 103, which blew up over Lockerbie, an attack blamed on Col. Gadhafi.
A bigger concern, U.S. officials say, is what Col. Gadhafi would do if he survives in power and becomes an international recluse who could use his newfound hostility to fuel instability in the region.
During a recent visit to Tunisia, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton raised the specter of Col. Gadhafi doing “terrible things” to Libya and its neighbors if he stays in power. “This is a man who has no conscience,” she said. “If he stays, we can’t predict what he will do.”
For now, officials said Col. Gadhafi, though unpredictable, knows resorting to terrorism against the West would harden the U.S.’s stance against him.
President Barack Obama has so far authorized limited use of U.S. force in Libya, aimed at setting up a no-fly zone, protecting rebel centers in eastern Libya and preventing a humanitarian crisis.
“We still think that Gadhafi has lost his legitimacy and must go, but this military mission is not about regime change. I would not conflate the two,” an Obama administration official said. The U.S. mission could expand, officials said, if Col. Gadhafi uses unconventional weapons at home or terrorism abroad.
U.S. and European officials believe Col. Gadhafi won’t be able to team up with al Qaeda. In recent years, Col. Gadhafi’s intelligence service has helped the Central Intelligence Agency crack down on al Qaeda in North Africa.
Meanwhile, al Qaeda itself is too ideologically “principled” to associate itself with Col. Gadhafi, one official said, because of his shifting allegiances.
When opposition to his rule flared last month, Col. Gadhafi accused al Qaeda and other Islamists of instigating the violence, a strategy that appeared designed to blunt U.S. and international support for the rebels.
Now U.S. and Western powers have lined up behind the rebels and have started attacks on his forces, Col. Gadhafi is employing populist Islamist language to rally support on the Arab street, warning of a Western crusade and occupation of his country.
U.S. intelligence agencies believe there are some Islamist elements within the Libyan opposition, but that the movement’s overall aim is to overthrow Col. Gadhafi and move Libya toward democracy.
A bigger concern for U.S. and European counterterrorism officials is that U.S. and European military operations in Libya, if they drag on, will become a rallying cry for al Qaeda affiliates.
U.S. and European counterterrorism officials say that the unrest sweeping the region has set back intelligence-sharing relationships, either because old Arab allies have been overthrown or because those who remain in power are too distracted by the growing wave of opposition to keep the pressure on al Qaeda.
“It’s a no-win situation,” the senior counterterrorism official said.
In Italy, President Giorgio Napolitano warned Italians “not to give into fear” after a key member of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s coalition expressed concern that Italy could face retaliation from Col. Moammar Gadhafi’s regime.
