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MIAMI (AP) — Exceptionally high ocean temperatures and atmospheric
conditions that support hurricane development will keep the
Atlantic and Caribbean on track for an above-average storm season,
U.S. forecasters said Thursday.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly
upgraded its May outlook, calling for 14 to 19 named tropical
storms, up from a range of 14 to 18.
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That includes the five tropical storms that have formed since the
six-month hurricane season started June 1. It ends Nov. 30 and the
peak period for hurricanes runs from August through
October.
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“We expect considerable activity,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal
hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center in
Washington.
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“There is absolutely no reason that people should be complacent,”
Bell said. “Now is the time people really need to make sure they
have their hurricane preparedness plans in place.”
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Tropical storms get named when their top winds reach 39 mph or
higher. NOAA now expects seven to 10 named storms to strengthen
into hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or higher, and three to
five of those hurricanes could become major storms with winds
blowing 111 mph or more.
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In May, forecasters called for six to 10 hurricanes this season.
The seasonal average is 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two
major hurricanes.
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Key climate factors predicted in May continue to boost forecasters’
expectations for an above-average season, Bell said.
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“The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane
activity during August through October,” Bell said. “Storms through
October will form more frequently and become more intense than
we’ve seen so far this season.”
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Atmospheric and marine conditions indicate a high-activity era that
began in 1995 continues, and ocean temperatures are the third
warmest on record, he said.
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The La Nina weather phenomenon also may redevelop this fall, Bell
said.
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La Nina is an unusual cooling of the Pacific waters near the
equator. It cuts wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical
Atlantic, which gives tropical storms a chance to develop and
strengthen before being ripped apart.
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Forecasters say La Nina helped make the 2010 season one of the
busiest on record with 19 named storms, including 12 hurricanes.
The opposite El Nino phenomenon, which warms Pacific waters near
the equator and increases wind shear over the Atlantic, helps
suppress storm development.
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“The numbers in May reflected the possibility that El Nino could
develop. El Nino has not developed,” Bell said.
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Five tropical storms have developed so far this season.
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The Mexican government reported 22 deaths after Tropical Storm
Arlene came ashore June 30 with heavy rains that caused flooding
and mudslides. Last week, Tropical Storm Don fizzled to a tropical
depression just before crossing the Texas coastline.
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On Thursday, officials urged Florida residents to monitor the
progress of Tropical Storm Emily as it drenched the Caribbean
island shared by Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
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The storm was likely to cross eastern Cuba on Friday and might
touch Florida on Saturday, though the projected track would keep
its center offshore, according to the National Hurricane Center in
Miami.
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The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in
2008. Though not considered a major hurricane, Ike caused $10
billion in damage in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas, making it the
third-costliest storm after Hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Andrew
in 1992, according to the hurricane center.
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The last major hurricane to strike the U.S. was Category 3
Hurricane Wilma, which made landfall in Florida in 2005.
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“We’ve been quite lucky in recent years, but that’s no reason to be
complacent,” said Steve Woodward, the Federal Emergency Management
Agency’s deputy assistant administrator for response. “As spring
and summer have taught us, with tornadoes and flooding and the heat
wave, disasters can strike practically anytime and
anywhere.”
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—
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Online:
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