This weekend Indiana Democrats are in French Lick, Ind. trying to place bets on how to bring the party back from the electoral wilderness in the Hoosier state.
Democrats feel optimistic over the troubles of Gov. Mike Pence, caught between two immovable forces within his own party. Republican moderates felt he nearly caused economic harm with his stand on the Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) and conservative, faith-oriented Republicans livid Pence caved on the RFRA issue.
Democrats believe they can return to electoral victory if they can convince white Hoosiers on the poor economic direction of Indiana during former Gov. Mitch Daniels’ last four years and the first three years of Pence.
There’s some strong indicators pointing to Indiana’s economic malaise.
The crisis in the Department of Child Services with cases of children in troubled families rising significantly, not just in urban counties like Marion, Lake and Allen, but in significant increases in rural counties, where the numbers of children in need of services is growing rapidly.
Wages of Indiana households and families are stagnant, despite the Pence Administration’s rosy job pronouncements.
The heroin epidemic and the spread of HIV is occurring in white rural Indiana counties, not in the heart of the hood.
I’m sure there’ll be plenty of seminars at French Lick for Democrats to ponder these subjects and plot a return to victory.
But another critical problem faces Indiana Democrats. The end of the age of Obama.
Next year’s election won’t feature the bounce in registered and actual voters Obama created in 2008 and 2012 among young voters and especially among African-Americans.
Despite the hype, voter turnout in this state has declined. The Census Bureau reported in 2008 and 2012, the African-American voter turnout in Indiana was among the highest, in percentage terms, of any state!
In 2008, 61 percent of Blacks voted; jumping to 68 percent in 2012.
But in the off-year elections of 2010 and 2014, Black voter turnout cratered; with 44 percent of Blacks voting in 2010 and 37 percent voting in 2014.
And unless Indiana’s Democratic leaders wake up, Black voter turnout won’t reach those unprecedented levels as in 2008 and 2012.
What drove Blacks to the polls in 2008 and 2012 was extreme enthusiasm about electing the first Black man as president and then re-electing him.
That won’t exist next year. And while there’s enthusiasm right now for Hillary Clinton, it’s not on the level that existed for the current president.
Bottom line, if Blacks, especially in Indiana’s largest county and largest Black community, aren’t fully familiar with and energized about the Democrats’ statewide candidates, those candidate’s chances to win statewide next year are slim to none.
For example, in 2012 John Gregg won Marion County by 80,618 votes. Joe Donnelly won the same county by 120,939 votes. Gregg nearly won and Donnelly did.
In 2010, Vop Osili carried Marion County by 20,672 votes in his Secretary of State’s race. In 2014, Beth White only carried the county by 23,421 in the same race. Both lived here, but enthusiasm and voter turnout wasn’t there for them.
Now, in the race for the U.S. Senate seat Dan Coats is vacating, African-American voter enthusiasm is going to be critical.
But, the two Democratic candidates who have so far announced they’re running are virtually unknown to Black voters.
Yes, Democrat Baron Hill has a name and he’s been around Democratic politics for nearly three decades. But when Hill ran and won and lost for Congress, it was in the southern part of the state. Out of sight and mind to Black Marion County residents.
Then last Saturday, literally out of the blue, a gentleman named John Dickerson held a news conference announcing he’s also running for the Democratic nomination for the Senate.
Dickerson’s claim to fame is he used to work with former Lt. Gov. Kathy Davis when she ran the Family and Social Services Administration. Dickerson ran ARC of Indiana for some 32 years; a non-profit dedicated to working with the handicapped and developmentally disabled.
I don’t know Dickerson. He’s probably qualified, but if I don’t know him, then the estimated 184,083 eligible African-American voters in Marion County don’t have a clue who Dickerson is.
Meanwhile right at this column’s deadline, the race for governor on the Democratic side got clearer right after the Indiana AFL-CIO endorsed John Gregg for governor, Gregg’s other declared opponent State Sen. Karen Tallian dropped out of the race.
Stunningly in the space of 11 days, Gregg’s two declared opponents have left the race, with only the specter of former Evan Bayh aide Tom Sugar as Gregg’s potential obstacle toward a rematch of 2012 with Pence.
With Glenda Ritz running for re-election, Tallian seems a shoo-in to either be Gregg’s Lt. governor running mate or the Democrats’ attorney general choice.
It’s imperative Democrats lock in their ticket before next June’s party convention.
Key voting blocs can’t wait until this time next summer to learn about the Democratic candidates striving to regain a foothold in statewide office.
An African-American on the Democrats ticket could help, but the caution is with the president’s unpopularity among white voters Democrats need to recapture statewide offices, a Black statewide candidate could be counterproductive.
That being said, it’s even more critical and essential that without Obama’s name on the ballot, Democratic statewide candidates have to get back to the old days of connecting with Black voters in their communities.
If Democrats do not engage and energize Indiana’s estimated 453.835 Blacks of voting age; and the largest block of those voters being in Indianapolis, then come January 2017, Democrats will again be out in the cold for another two bitter years!
See ‘ya next week!
You can email comment to Amos Brown at acbrown@aol.com.
