As I write this column, we are about 75 days out until Election Day. So I figured, what better time to sit down and do a little political pontificating and handicap the big political races here in Indiana?
Granted, the caveat in all this is the old adage that a day in politics is a lifetime, and anything can happen and it usually does; and that has never been truer than in this election cycle. So all my predictions I am making today are based on my knowledge and experience as of today. Ask me these same questions tomorrow (or 30 minutes from now), and you might get a different answer. With that said, let’s begin …
Presidential race
While I think Donald Trump wins Indiana, I think Hillary Clinton wins the White House. I base this on a number of assumptions. First of all, a compilation of polling data and voting trends of all 50 states gives Clinton a 73 percent chance of winning the White House, while Donald Trump is at 23 percent. With that said, Trump’s saving graces are the working class, older, white voters who feel left behind in the economy, and they may not tell pollsters that the plan is to vote for Trump (i.e. The Bradley Effect). However, if Trump was hoping to appeal to moderates, independents and getting back disenfranchised Republicans, he might want to reconsider the strategy of attacking Gold Star. And just for the record, between Trump’s personality and Clinton’s trust issues, I would not be shocked to see Libertarian Gary Johnson crack double digits.
U.S. Senate
This is a classic example of how crazy this political year has been. I originally categorized the race as solid Republican when the match-up was Todd Young and Baron Hill. Now that Hill is out and Evan Bayh is in, it has gone to toss-up status. A number of my pundit colleagues have labeled it as “Leans Democrat,” but I base my prediction on two factors. While Bayh does have the name, and more importantly the cash, 2016 is not 2004, the last time he ran. Indiana is more Republican, and voters are more cynical. Bayh having spent the past six years in Washington getting rich playing lobbyist may not fly too well with some folks. However, having $9 million in the bank goes a long way to mitigating those attacks. Of course, not all the money in the world can help the fact that during a TV interview, Evan Bayh couldn’t even remember his Indiana address.
Governor’s race
If you’ve tried to follow the governor’s race, you will probably need to see a chiropractor to deal with the whiplash. First, it was the departure of Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann, followed by the replacement of Eric Holcomb, followed by Mike Pence being tapped to run for vice president, followed by Holcomb (and Susan Brooks and Todd Rokita) filing to replace him, and then State Auditor Suzanne Crouch being picked as Holcomb’s running mate. My neck still hurts. So how do we call this race? Well, we put it in the “leans Republican” category. In all the earlier polling, we always saw a major drop-off between Pence and the Republican presidential nominee. He was also having major issues with Republicans in the donut counties. Despite that, he was still three to five points ahead of John Gregg. Take Pence out and put Holcomb in, and a lot of that eventually goes away. In fact, the most recent polls showed Holcomb and Gregg tied. Holcomb has been running for six weeks, while Gregg has been running for six years. That can’t be good for Gregg.
The other statewides
I put the race for superintendent of public instruction (SPI) in the “toss up” category and attorney general in the “leans Republican” category. For the SPI race, Glenda Ritz has her army of teachers and union folks, but she doesn’t have the angry suburban Soccer Moms that helped her in 2012, nor does she have Pence on the ballot in 2016. She does have an 8–1 advantage in money over Republican Jennifer McCormick, but so did Tony Bennett four years ago. For the AG’s race, much of that is simply based on the fact Indiana is a Republican-leaning state, and Republican Curtis Hill is a much better campaigner than Democrat Judge Lorenzo Arrendondo.
As I said, these “predictions” are based on today, and we have fewer than 75 days to go before the election, so anything is possible. However, I feel pretty good about them. Of course, you can always check in with me tomorrow, or a couple hours from now, and I may have a different answer for you.
Abdul-Hakim Shabazz is an attorney, political commentator and publisher of IndyPolitics.org. You can email comments to him at abdul@indypolitics.org.
