When it comes to the way in which African Americans are likely to vote in the 2024 presidential election, history suggests that President Joe Biden should be confident. To begin, more than 80% of African Americans identify as Democrats. Of that group, at least 87% have voted for the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 2000 – though that number has steadily declined since 2012.
Most polls found that President Biden garnered roughly 90% of the Black vote in 2020. This is stronger than Black support was for Hillary Clinton in 2016 (88%), but is notably lower than the percentage who supported Barack Obama in 2008 (95%) and 2012 (93%). Overall, Blacks comprised 17% of all Democratic voters in 2022 according to the Pew Research Center. By contrast, just 1% of all Republican voters were Black. Further in Biden’s favor is the fact that roughly one-third of all Americans identify as Democrats, as compared to the roughly one-fourth of Americans who identify as Republicans.
Importantly, race played a major role in Biden’s decision to run for the presidency in 2020. He responded to then-President Donald Trump’s muddled moral messaging regarding the racist debacle in Charlottesville in 2017. Biden said, “… the president of the United States assigned a moral equivalence between those spreading hate and those with the courage to stand against it.” In short, Trump’s repeated flirtations with white nationalism precipitated Biden’s decision to come off the sidelines. Black people took notice, especially after a crucial assist from Congressman Jim Clyburn in the South Carolina primary. They have largely supported him since his election.
Despite this seemingly good news, President Biden is facing some serious headwinds as relates to his party’s most reliable voters. Following a trend about which I have written previously, African Americans as a group are becoming increasingly disenchanted with the Democratic Party. Those reasons include the party’s failure to secure voting rights protections and law enforcement reforms.
Moreover, while the nation’s macroeconomic indicators are relatively strong, Wall Street gains, GDP growth, and even low unemployment have not necessarily translated into a substantial financial benefit for most Blacks. Indeed, it appears as though more and more Blacks are miffed that the Democratic Party doesn’t sufficiently address their concerns – and not just regarding the reasons that I’ve already referenced. For example, the ongoing war in Gaza looms very large.
As is the case among Democrats generally, African Americans are disturbed by mounting Palestinian casualties as Israel retaliates against Hamas in the wake of its terrorist attack in October. It has become abundantly clear that Israel’s asymmetric military advantage has wreaked havoc not just on Hamas, but on thousands of Palestinian non-combatants. Women and children reportedly are disproportionately bearing the brunt of Israel’s military strikes, which have left tens of thousands of Palestinians homeless. Unfortunately, the war has led to much stronger support for Hamas – which is dedicated to Israel’s destruction – among the Palestinian people. (To be clear, Hamas has never enjoyed solid support from the majority of Palestinians.)
The overwhelming majority of African Americans identify strongly with the Judeo-Christian tradition. Historically, this has resulted in a strong affinity for Israel. However, African Americans also tend to champion the cause of oppressed peoples around the world. This has made the majority of them sympathetic to the plight of Palestinians, who have long endured hardships under Israeli occupation. This has included the building of illegal settlements and increasingly belligerent actions from settlers. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is presiding over the most xenophobic and reactionary government in Israel’s history. Finally, President Biden’s statement questioning the level of Palestinian damaged his reputation among African Americans.
What does all of this mean? Will Black voters turn to the Republican Party en masse in 2024? I highly doubt that. The prohibitively likely Republican nominee is a mentally unstable dictator-in-waiting who remains very unpopular with African Americans. However, Democrats should really focus on the fact that – at this point – a disturbing number of Black voters (and youth of all ethnicities) might simply decide to sit this one out. That would be devastating to Biden given that he likely will need another historic turnout of voters – of whatever race – to secure victory in 2024. There is still time to turn things around, but the clock is rapidly ticking.
