On Election Night and the days following, commentators and pundits across the world remarked how President-elect Barack Obama won Blacks, Hispanics, young people, college educated and wealthy voters. While Sen. John McCain won white males, white evangelicals, senior citizens and married voters.
Since Americans vote by secret ballot, how did the pundits know all this? From the exit polls, surveys of voters in every state and nationwide conducted for ABC, CBS, NBC/MSNBC, CNN, Fox and the Associated Press by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky Research.
Tens of thousands of voters were sampled nationwide. In Indiana, 2,422 voters were surveyed in an undetermined number of precincts statewide – precincts selected to represent Indiana’s basic voter demographics.
Unfortunately, this column and WTLC-AM (1310’s) “Afternoons with Amos” found that Indiana’s Exit Poll, conducted by Edison-Mitofsky, failed to adequately survey African-American voters in Indianapolis/Marion County. And since 41.7 percent of Indiana’s Black voting age population lives in Marion County, the Indiana Exit Poll’s undersampling and undercounting of African-American voters in Indiana’s largest city and county led to a significant understating of the significant contribution of African-American voters in the Nov. 4 election.
Despite the fact that Indiana had record voter turnout, including the highest turnout in Indianapolis/Marion County’s history, Indiana’s exit poll showed Black turnout was below expectations at 7 percent, compared with Indiana’s voting age population of 8 percent.
That basic inconsistency caused me to examine what happened.
I was able to obtain the locations of the four Marion County precincts where exit poll workers were stationed. Using past and current precinct maps (because of the redrawing and renumbering of precincts earlier this year), I examined precinct Census data and found that the percentage of Black voting age persons in the exit poll precincts ranged from 1.3 percent to 6.6 percent.
The exit poll precincts were two on the Southeastside, Franklin Precinct 3 (1.3 percent Black) and Franklin Precinct 10 (1.5 percent Black). Also Lawrence Precinct 51 (6.6 percent Black) and in Washington Township Ward 22/Precinct 1 (5.8 percent Black). The exit poll didn’t survey any Marion County precincts that were either majority-Black or had substantial Black population.
An official at Edison-Mitofsky confirmed to me that just 11 percent of the Marion County voters they surveyed were African-American.
That’s absurd. Undersampling and undercounting on its face given that Marion County’s actual percentage of African-Americans of voting age is 24.7 percent.
This election had a superheated response from our city/county’s Black community fueling the highest overall early voting and Election Day turnout ever. For the exit poll to say that just 11 percent of all voters were Black demonstrated how egregious the undersampling was.
Like that Iowa pollster who despised my valid criticism of their methodology and disclosure, the folks at Edison-Mitofsky treated my questioning their poll’s methods as coming from a pesky irritant.
Joe Lenski, an Edison-Mitofsky official, responded by e-mail that their “samples are selected to be representative of the state.”
Horsefeathers! For the national exit poll consortium not to sample any precincts in Marion County with a substantial percentage of Black voters, and try to portray that undersampling as “representative” of Indiana voters is a dereliction of the pollsters’ responsibility to obtain an accurate, representative, full profile of Indiana voters.
The sloppy methodology, which caused this outrageous undersampling of Blacks in the exit poll is just another example of the overall methodological negligence many of the political polls conducted in Indiana this year.
It’s imperative that a national set of political polling standards for transparency, and methodology be implemented and enforced.
What I’m hearing in the streets
Gov. Mitch Daniel’s impressive exit poll stats led several national pundits to proclaim Daniels as a prospect to run for president in 2012. Including the exit poll’s saying 20 percent of Blacks voted for him.
The flawed exit poll data means Daniels got a bit under 20 percent, still an impressive total.
But Daniels insists he’s serving his next term and leaving politics.
Who could be the next Barack Obama? It might be the impressive young Mayor Cory Booker of Newark, N.J. A Rhodes Scholar, Booker was in Indianapolis to speak to a school choice luncheon and Butler’s Diversity Lecture with former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele.
In an exclusive interview on our “Afternoons with Amos” program, Booker impressed with his enthusiasm extolling his initiatives turning around Newark. He said his city is “second best in the East in reducing violence,” because he put more cops on the street and invested in modern crime fighting technology. Booker even complimented some of Mayor Greg Ballard’s efforts.
In the wake of the Obama victory, an African-American will be among those fighting to control the Republican Party.
Michael Steele, the former Maryland lieutenant governor, and one of the most visible African-American Republican politicians in the country was also here for Butler’s Diversity Lecture. In his exclusive interview on our WTLC-AM (1310) program, Steele insisted that Republicans must reach out to the Black community. Steele, who is running for the Republican National Committee chairmanship, also spoke out strongly in favor of efforts to reintegrate ex-felons back into society with jobs and assistance.
Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard was pleased by the words of Cory Booker and Michael Steele. I ran into the mayor at Saturday’s annual UNCF gala as he made an unannounced visit, which caught organizers and attendees off guard as the mayor and his wife were first spotted dancing to the Commodores, the celebrity entertainment.
But the biggest news out of the mayor’s office last week wasn’t the slight cut in local income taxes or getting $29 million in HUD funds to deal with foreclosed housing.
The big news is Mayor Ballard is taking steps to fix his horrible media relations. Robert Vane, who handled PR for the State GOP and the mayor’s transition, joined the 25th floor as deputy chief of staff and communications director. Vane understands media relations and politics. He’ll fiercely defend the mayor’s policies while treating media, including Black media, with respect.
Marcus Barlow, the mayor’s former media maven, who’d been roundly criticized by media and an increasing number of key community organizations and institutions, has been exiled to a PR backwater.
With Vane’s arrival, council and county Democrats need to quit sucking their thumbs and get more professional and aggressive in telling media and the community their objections and alternatives to Mayor Ballard’s policies.
See ‘ya next week.
Amos Brown’s opinions are not necessarily those of the Indianapolis Recorder Newspaper. You can contact him at (317) 221-0915 or by e-mail at ACBROWN@AOL.COM.
