After Mitt Romney lost the 2012 presidential election, the Republican National Committee famously conducted an “autopsy” to understand what went wrong. Romney, a moderate Republican, seemed to have a 50-50 shot at beating President Obama.
Officially known as the “Growth and Opportunity Project,” the RNC’s report drew several conclusions. Many of them boiled down to the notion that Republicans needed to change their branding strategy: attract more youth, people of color, and members of the LGBTQ community. Also, convince low-income people that Republicans cared about them as opposed to corporations. In short, the report concluded that Republicans were seen as the party of the wealthy, the white, and the straight. (Or, at least, the straight-appearing.)
Deciding to run as a Republican, in 2015 Donald Trump launched an insurgent campaign of populism and white nationalism. Political strategist (and Darth Vader role model) Steve Bannon convinced Mr. Trump to ignore the results of the so-called “autopsy.” Bannon told Trump that there were millions of untapped voters who were just itching for a candidate like him.
He was right.
We all know what followed. MAGA became a juggernaut that completely reshaped the Republican Party in Trump’s image. They galloped to victory after victory across the nation. And though he lost the 2020 election, Trump and his MAGA base simply would not go away. He triple-downed on false claims, hateful rhetoric, and economic populism. Despite the broken promises and abject failures of his first term (which included mismanaging the COVID crisis and losing the Republican majority in Congress), enough people voted for Trump in 2024 to return him to the White House.
Then came last week’s mid-term elections. Despite strong economic headwinds that are in large part fueled by an unpopular war with Iran, Republicans had what appeared to be two distinct advantages over Democrats: maps and money. The former concerned the gerrymandering battle that took place in the months preceding the election. Republicans had a structural advantage in that regard. This was due in no small way to the Supreme Court’s rulings that allowed many states to redistrict very close to the election —– including in some states where voting had already begun.
Yet, we learned that playing around with voting maps does not automatically result in the reification of one’s electoral designs. In other words, redrawing voting maps does not conjure electoral prowess if candidates are not viewed as people who will positively affect the lives of desperate people. Redistricting was supposed to have been a shot in the arm. Instead, it was a self-inflicted punch in the face.
Further, Democrats were at a clear monetary disadvantage, especially as personified by Elon Musk’s roughly half a billion dollar spend to maintain Republican majorities in the House and Senate. That level of access to money is akin to someone who is addicted to sugar finding out that all the vending machines are free. How could it be possible for Republicans to have lost last week with those two things going for them?
Musk’s money wasn’t enough to make people forget how much gas, medical bills, and food costs these days. It couldn’t make them forget that they don’t have health coverage or that they couldn’t afford to repair their car, much less buy a new one. But there’s more to that story. The fact is that most Americans haven’t been doing well for quite some time now. The so-called “K-shaped Economy” has masked some serious problems.
In addition to maps and money, Republicans also had their key messenger —– Donald Trump. The President crisscrossed the country before deciding to rally his base virtually in the final days. He even held a live convention, acting like an aging pop star singing his greatest hits over and over again. Still, in candid moments, Trump seemed to understand that his party was in trouble. But perhaps he had one more victory in him. All he had to do was do what he’d always done. His loyal voters would drag Republicans across the finish line.
He was wrong.
We all know what happened in last week’s elections. Pollsters and pundits predicted a “blue wave” (though some did so cautiously, having been wrong in years past). The nautical metaphor was inadequate. It wasn’t a wave; it was a tsunami.
As it turned out, too few of Mr. Trump’s voters turned out. Mr. Trump’s approval rating is below 30%. Plus, too many Republicans simply stayed home on election day. Donald Trump said, “Pretend that I’m on the ballot.” And that’s exactly what voters did.
Neither maps, nor money, nor messaging could overcome the simple fact that too many people are suffering in this country. So many of the Republican candidates, often chosen by Trump himself, were not able to convince enough people that the GOP was A-OK.
Nothing that the Republicans said was enough to make people forget how much gas, medical bills, and food costs these days. It couldn’t make them forget that they don’t have health coverage or that they couldn’t afford to repair their car, much less buy a new one. But there’s more to that story. The fact is that most Americans haven’t been doing well for quite some time now. The so-called “K-shaped Economy” has masked some serious structural problems with our economy.
Hopefully, Democrats will not fumble the ball as they have so many times in the past. They need to get to work immediately for the American people. They’ll have some room to try to extract their proverbial pound of flesh from Mr. Trump, but they ought not spend too much time doing so.
The clock is ticking.
Contact community leader Larry Smith at larry@leaf-llc.com
