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7,500 earthquakes hit shattered New Zealand city

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CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand (AP) — It’s been 10 months since the

first big earthquake struck New Zealand’s second-largest city. It’s

been nearly five months since a far more devastating one killed 181

people and crippled the downtown. But it’s been just a few hours

since yet another aftershock startled Christchurch residents during

the night.

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“I stop breathing,” said Sheridan Cattermole, a bartender and a

mom. “I get pins and needles all over. I either freeze or run. I

just want things to be back to what they were like this time last

year. I had my vege garden, and my sunflowers.”

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Seismologists have recorded 7,500 earthquakes in Christchurch since

September – an average of more than 20 a day. The rumblings are

rattling the psyche of the still-battered city. They have left the

land under thousands of homes unsafe to build on. Some people have

left town entirely. Yet many have proven resilient, and some now

see a reconstruction boom on the horizon.

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Christchurch is the disaster that the world forgot. When the deadly

quake toppled the iconic Cathedral spire and flattened buildings in

this city of 390,000, people around the globe paid attention. But

two weeks later, the massive earthquake and tsunami that killed

more than 20,000 in Japan took center stage.

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In New Zealand, the events in Christchurch continue to reverberate.

In a country of 4 million, the cost of the quakes – estimated at

more than $12 billion – amounts to eight percent of the country’s

annual economic output. Compare that to Hurricane Katrina, whose

costs were less than 1 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.

Christchurch will likely eclipse the Japan disaster in cost per

person.

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And nobody knows if the worst is over. Not even the

experts.

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When Kevin Furlong, a professor of geosciences at Penn State

University, came to Christchurch on a sabbatical last year, he

thought he would be studying earthquakes in the abstract – not

living through them.

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The quakes in the city have not followed the classic pattern, he

said. Typically, a big quake hits and is followed by a series of

ever-diminishing aftershocks.

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In Christchurch, the initial Sept. 4 magnitude-7.0 quake didn’t

cause widespread destruction because it was centered 30 miles (50

kilometers) west of the city, but it helped trigger at least two

distinct new quakes on different fault lines, each with their own

pattern of aftershocks.

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First came a deadly magnitude 6.1 quake on Feb. 22, which was

centered almost directly under a residential area and flattened

buildings that had withstood the earlier quake. Then a 6.0

magnitude quake struck on June 13. Though no one died, it was a

psychological blow to people trying to rebuild.

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Earthquakes are maddeningly difficult to predict, Furlong said.

There’s no way of knowing whether there’s more to come, he said,

though the odds improve with each day that passes without a major

event.

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New Zealand geologists estimated last week that there was a 23

percent chance another big quake would hit within a year, down from

30 percent last month.

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“I’ve become much more attuned to what the public wants to know:

‘When will it stop and why are we having them,'” Furlong said. “To

be honest, it’s really frustrating. You just can’t answer those

very appropriate first-order questions.”

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That uncertainty is no comfort to people like Cattermole. She and

her husband Pete, a cabinetmaker, and their three young children

remained in their home in the working class suburb of Bexley long

after most neighbors had left.

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As recently as late June, they were sleeping in the living room to

escape the muck creeping through the walls and floor at the sunken

rear of their home. Their ruined possessions lay in a heap in the

front yard, awaiting an insurance assessment.

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All around, buckled homes sat abandoned atop a sea of mud and sand.

A makeshift blue water pipe snaked along the sidewalk. The few who

remained announced their presence with cardboard signs like the

Cattermoles’: “3 Children & 2 Adults Still Here.”

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The problem: a phenomenon called liquefaction, when an earthquake

forces underground water up through loose soil.

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“It’s the same physics as quicksand,” Furlong said. “Whole acres

turn into something of a liquid. Houses sink. Water and mud jet up

through the surface. You get cracks, sand volcanoes,

flooding.”

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He said that geologists are reassessing the importance of

liquefaction after the devastating impact it has had on

Christchurch.

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Cattermole and her family endured long stretches without fresh

water and, with the sewer system broken, used a portable toilet on

the street or a chemical toilet inside. “There’s so much stress

around, you can just see it,” she said.

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They have since found a rental home and are moving out.

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Their previous home was among more than 5,000 condemned by the New

Zealand government last month because of liquefaction. Most are in

the city’s low-income eastern suburbs. Thousands more are likely to

be condemned in what will force a major redesign of the

suburbs.

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The government has offered to pay homeowners for their losses, but

many, Cattermole included, fear they will be priced out of new

homes.

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“There’s a plentiful supply of Rolls Royce-priced sections, but

they’re not affordable for people on Toyota Corolla incomes,” said

Hugh Pavletich, a longtime Christchurch property developer and

critic of the city’s land-use policies. City officials say they’re

working hard to ensure there’s plenty of affordable new land for

displaced residents.

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It’s hard to gauge what long-term effect the quakes will have.

School enrollment is down about 7 percent – an indication of

families leaving – and the economy is fragile. Retail sales are

down about 11 percent from pre-earthquake levels, and unemployment

claims are up about 14 percent.

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The center of the city remains off-limits behind chain-link fences

and will stay that way for months, possibly years.

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Demolition crews are planning to tear down about 1,000 hotels,

office buildings and other unsafe structures. So far, they’ve taken

down fewer than 150. City officials estimate it will take nine

months just to demolish the 26-story Hotel Grand Chancellor, which

has been teetering since February. When the city center reopens,

fewer than half the buildings will remain.

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The new downtown is likely to be much lower. Christchurch residents

appear to have little appetite for high-rises these days. “The

magic number I’m hearing is three stories,” said Connal Townsend,

chief executive of the Property Council of New Zealand, which

represents commercial property owners.

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Around the country, building owners are bracing for big insurance

premium increases, particularly for older structures, Townsend

said. Homeowners are also likely to see earthquake insurance rates

climb significantly.

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The Port of Christchurch in Lyttelton, which handles almost all the

region’s freight, has been unable to secure any earthquake

insurance since June. The port’s chief executive, Peter Davie, said

he is essentially crossing his fingers, hoping that no more

damaging quakes hit.

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Even the Christchurch City Council has been unable to secure new

earthquake insurance for much of its infrastructure.

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Still, many are hoping that the billions of dollars flowing in from

government and insurance payments will stoke a boom within a couple

of years.

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As the city looks to rebuild, Townsend said much will depend on the

vision of city leaders: A bold reconstruction plan would inspire

confidence and investment, while a second-rate one could scare away

investors.

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Attention is turning to Roger Sutton, a former energy executive who

took a pay cut in June to become the first Christchurch earthquake

czar, with broad planning powers.

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Asked if he was worried whether new earthquakes could cause more

damage, Sutton shook his head and said, “Hopefully, there’s not

much more to break.”

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