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CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand (AP) — It’s been 10 months since the
first big earthquake struck New Zealand’s second-largest city. It’s
been nearly five months since a far more devastating one killed 181
people and crippled the downtown. But it’s been just a few hours
since yet another aftershock startled Christchurch residents during
the night.
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“I stop breathing,” said Sheridan Cattermole, a bartender and a
mom. “I get pins and needles all over. I either freeze or run. I
just want things to be back to what they were like this time last
year. I had my vege garden, and my sunflowers.”
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Seismologists have recorded 7,500 earthquakes in Christchurch since
September – an average of more than 20 a day. The rumblings are
rattling the psyche of the still-battered city. They have left the
land under thousands of homes unsafe to build on. Some people have
left town entirely. Yet many have proven resilient, and some now
see a reconstruction boom on the horizon.
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Christchurch is the disaster that the world forgot. When the deadly
quake toppled the iconic Cathedral spire and flattened buildings in
this city of 390,000, people around the globe paid attention. But
two weeks later, the massive earthquake and tsunami that killed
more than 20,000 in Japan took center stage.
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In New Zealand, the events in Christchurch continue to reverberate.
In a country of 4 million, the cost of the quakes – estimated at
more than $12 billion – amounts to eight percent of the country’s
annual economic output. Compare that to Hurricane Katrina, whose
costs were less than 1 percent of U.S. gross domestic product.
Christchurch will likely eclipse the Japan disaster in cost per
person.
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And nobody knows if the worst is over. Not even the
experts.
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When Kevin Furlong, a professor of geosciences at Penn State
University, came to Christchurch on a sabbatical last year, he
thought he would be studying earthquakes in the abstract – not
living through them.
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The quakes in the city have not followed the classic pattern, he
said. Typically, a big quake hits and is followed by a series of
ever-diminishing aftershocks.
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In Christchurch, the initial Sept. 4 magnitude-7.0 quake didn’t
cause widespread destruction because it was centered 30 miles (50
kilometers) west of the city, but it helped trigger at least two
distinct new quakes on different fault lines, each with their own
pattern of aftershocks.
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First came a deadly magnitude 6.1 quake on Feb. 22, which was
centered almost directly under a residential area and flattened
buildings that had withstood the earlier quake. Then a 6.0
magnitude quake struck on June 13. Though no one died, it was a
psychological blow to people trying to rebuild.
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Earthquakes are maddeningly difficult to predict, Furlong said.
There’s no way of knowing whether there’s more to come, he said,
though the odds improve with each day that passes without a major
event.
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New Zealand geologists estimated last week that there was a 23
percent chance another big quake would hit within a year, down from
30 percent last month.
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“I’ve become much more attuned to what the public wants to know:
‘When will it stop and why are we having them,'” Furlong said. “To
be honest, it’s really frustrating. You just can’t answer those
very appropriate first-order questions.”
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That uncertainty is no comfort to people like Cattermole. She and
her husband Pete, a cabinetmaker, and their three young children
remained in their home in the working class suburb of Bexley long
after most neighbors had left.
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As recently as late June, they were sleeping in the living room to
escape the muck creeping through the walls and floor at the sunken
rear of their home. Their ruined possessions lay in a heap in the
front yard, awaiting an insurance assessment.
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All around, buckled homes sat abandoned atop a sea of mud and sand.
A makeshift blue water pipe snaked along the sidewalk. The few who
remained announced their presence with cardboard signs like the
Cattermoles’: “3 Children & 2 Adults Still Here.”
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The problem: a phenomenon called liquefaction, when an earthquake
forces underground water up through loose soil.
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“It’s the same physics as quicksand,” Furlong said. “Whole acres
turn into something of a liquid. Houses sink. Water and mud jet up
through the surface. You get cracks, sand volcanoes,
flooding.”
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He said that geologists are reassessing the importance of
liquefaction after the devastating impact it has had on
Christchurch.
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Cattermole and her family endured long stretches without fresh
water and, with the sewer system broken, used a portable toilet on
the street or a chemical toilet inside. “There’s so much stress
around, you can just see it,” she said.
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They have since found a rental home and are moving out.
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Their previous home was among more than 5,000 condemned by the New
Zealand government last month because of liquefaction. Most are in
the city’s low-income eastern suburbs. Thousands more are likely to
be condemned in what will force a major redesign of the
suburbs.
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The government has offered to pay homeowners for their losses, but
many, Cattermole included, fear they will be priced out of new
homes.
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“There’s a plentiful supply of Rolls Royce-priced sections, but
they’re not affordable for people on Toyota Corolla incomes,” said
Hugh Pavletich, a longtime Christchurch property developer and
critic of the city’s land-use policies. City officials say they’re
working hard to ensure there’s plenty of affordable new land for
displaced residents.
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It’s hard to gauge what long-term effect the quakes will have.
School enrollment is down about 7 percent – an indication of
families leaving – and the economy is fragile. Retail sales are
down about 11 percent from pre-earthquake levels, and unemployment
claims are up about 14 percent.
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The center of the city remains off-limits behind chain-link fences
and will stay that way for months, possibly years.
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Demolition crews are planning to tear down about 1,000 hotels,
office buildings and other unsafe structures. So far, they’ve taken
down fewer than 150. City officials estimate it will take nine
months just to demolish the 26-story Hotel Grand Chancellor, which
has been teetering since February. When the city center reopens,
fewer than half the buildings will remain.
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The new downtown is likely to be much lower. Christchurch residents
appear to have little appetite for high-rises these days. “The
magic number I’m hearing is three stories,” said Connal Townsend,
chief executive of the Property Council of New Zealand, which
represents commercial property owners.
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Around the country, building owners are bracing for big insurance
premium increases, particularly for older structures, Townsend
said. Homeowners are also likely to see earthquake insurance rates
climb significantly.
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The Port of Christchurch in Lyttelton, which handles almost all the
region’s freight, has been unable to secure any earthquake
insurance since June. The port’s chief executive, Peter Davie, said
he is essentially crossing his fingers, hoping that no more
damaging quakes hit.
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Even the Christchurch City Council has been unable to secure new
earthquake insurance for much of its infrastructure.
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Still, many are hoping that the billions of dollars flowing in from
government and insurance payments will stoke a boom within a couple
of years.
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As the city looks to rebuild, Townsend said much will depend on the
vision of city leaders: A bold reconstruction plan would inspire
confidence and investment, while a second-rate one could scare away
investors.
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Attention is turning to Roger Sutton, a former energy executive who
took a pay cut in June to become the first Christchurch earthquake
czar, with broad planning powers.
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Asked if he was worried whether new earthquakes could cause more
damage, Sutton shook his head and said, “Hopefully, there’s not
much more to break.”
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